Stellar (XLM) experienced a sharp rally in July and has been range-bound since. The altcoin dropped from the $.40 mark in the first few days of September, but recovered nearly 8% over the past 2 weeks.
With XLM showing cautious signals, we used OpenAI’s ChatGPT-5 to conduct a deep analysis of Stellar’s key on-chain metrics. The modules were given several indicators like CMF, accumulation/distribution, whale data, bull/bear power and more. Sponsored
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Here’s what the analysis revealed.
XLM Price rose while whales sat in cash. Santiment shows the share of stablecoins held by $5 million+ wallets climbed from 55% to 59% through the month. Yet, XLM still pushed to ~$0.417 on Sept 11–13.
That combo implies the rally was not whale-led. It was likely driven by smaller buyers and short covering. So, upside stalled once that flow faded.
Stellar (XLM) Price vs. Share of Stablecoin Supply Held By Whales. Source: Santiment
Steady spot accumulation despite weak money flow. On TradingView, the Accumulation/Distribution line climbed to nearly 1.72 billion across the period, even as CMF finished around −0.13 and spent much of mid-month below zero.
Overall, the bullish A/D vs. negative CMF divergence points to quiet absorption on spot, while broader liquidity leaned risk-off.
Momentum stayed soft into the local top. The histogram (BBP) rarely showed sustained positives during the run to ~$0.417. Sponsored
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XLM Accumulation/Distribution and CMF Chart. Source: TradingView
So, XLM price printed higher highs while momentum didn’t. This is a classic negative divergence.
After the peak, price held ~$0.38–0.39 anyway. It suggests strong hands defended dips even as momentum cooled.
$0.36–0.37 (retest support): This zone capped the mid-Sept pullbacks (Sept 17–18). CMF’s negative read and elevated whale stablecoin share leave room for one more liquidity sweep. Lose $0.37 on closes and a measured move targets ~$0.33 (range height ≈$0.04 under the shelf).
$0.40–0.41 (pivot / magnet): Multiple rejections cluster here and the mid-Sept high sits just above. With A/D still firm, base case is a grind around $0.40 as supply is tested again. Sustained closes over $0.41 would confirm renewed demand rather than short covering.
$0.45–0.46 (breakout objective): The Sept range spans ~$0.37–0.41 (~$0.04). A clean breakout and hold above $0.41 projects to $0.45±0.01.
For confidence, look for CMF to turn positive and the whale-stablecoin share to roll over. These will signal rotation from cash back into risk.
Bottom Line
September showed stealth accumulation and non-whale-led upside. XLM price in October likely revolves around $0.40–0.41.
A $0.36–0.37 retest is possible if risk appetite stays muted, while $0.45–0.46 opens up if breadth and money flow flip positive.
