Key Takeaways
What do the rising ESR, MVRV ratios say about Bitcoin’s market phase?
They indicate growing institutional accumulation and investor confidence as prices stabilize above $103k.
How do the NVT surge, liquidation heatmap shape Bitcoin’s near-term outlook?
They show strengthening network activity and highlight $108k as a pivotal resistance for the next breakout.
Bitcoin [BTC]’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) on Binance has risen from 0.0272 to 0.0286, marking its highest level since September. This steady increase reflects an expansion in internal liquidity, rather than heightened selling activity.
Historically, such a hike indicates that large investors are redistributing holdings into derivatives or long-term accumulation strategies.
The fact that the price has remained stable above $103k reinforces that this is not a sell-off phase, but rather a strategic liquidity buildup.
Therefore, the market might be transitioning from uncertainty towards renewed confidence, with whales and institutional traders quietly positioning for the next major price move.
A rebound and fresh momentum
Bitcoin has now successfully rebounded from the key support level of $101,225, showing resilience after a short period of decline. At press time, it was trading near $106k, supported by a recovering RSI of 46 – A sign of renewed buying pressure.
This rebound follows a retest of a descending trendline that previously acted as resistance. The strong reaction from this zone seemed to confirm renewed market interest at lower levels.
Moreover, the consistent higher lows forming on the chart could be indicative of improving sentiment among traders too.
If the current trend holds, the $115k resistance could be the next key target. This would validate sustained bullish momentum ahead.
Source: TradingView
Are investors gradually returning to profitable positions?
The MVRV ratio jumped by 4.35% to hit 1.8945, revealing that more Bitcoin holders may be re-entering profit territory. This upward movement signaled that the market may be moving out of undervaluation phases typically linked to accumulation zones.
Investors might be regaining confidence too, with short-term traders taking advantage of the recent correction to re-establish positions.
The metric’s steady hike could be a sign that large portfolios may be adding to their holdings as risk appetite returns.
Consequently, such a gradual improvement in realized profit levels reinforces the ongoing transition from caution to optimism. It would also support expectations of a medium-term price expansion in the coming sessions.
Source: CryptoQuant
A healthier transaction-to-value relationship?
The NVT Golden Cross increased sharply by 44.89% to -0.3245, showing that transaction volumes have been strengthening relative to Bitcoin’s valuation. Such a shift hinted at proving network health and growing utility across the blockchain.
Typically, such surges occur at the early stages of recovery cycles when transaction activity begins to align with market value.
At the time of writing, this metric was supporting the bullish case for Bitcoin’s sustained momentum beyond its press time consolidation range.
Source: CryptoQuant
Liquidation heatmap identifies $108K as next major obstacle
Finally, Binance’s 24-hour liquidation heatmap seemed to highlight dense liquidation clusters between $105k and $108k, marking critical short-term resistance zones.
These areas represent heavy concentrations of leveraged positions likely to trigger volatility once the price tests them.
A breakout above $108k could ignite a chain reaction of short liquidations, accelerating Bitcoin’s upside momentum. However, if rejected, traders may see minor pullbacks as profit-taking intensifies.
Despite this, however, the liquidity beneath $105k has remained firm, signaling sustained accumulation by market participants.
To put it simply, data suggested that Bitcoin’s next decisive move might hinge on how the price reacts to the $108k resistance area in the near term.
Source: CoinGlass
Conclusively, Bitcoin’s on-chain and technical metrics collectively seemed to pain a picture of strengthening market structure at press time.
Rising ESR, improving MVRV, and a rebounding NVT indicated that liquidity and investor confidence may be returning. With the RSI recovering and strong accumulation near $101k, the path towards $108k and $115k might be increasingly feasible.
If Bitcoin breaks above the immediate resistance, it could confirm the beginning of another sustained bullish leg. One driven by institutional demand and revived trading activity.
