Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative, reflecting slumping U.S. spot demand. Despite bullish leverage and reduced miner outflows, downside risks persist.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] market is facing a critical imbalance as the Coinbase Premium Index turned negative, signaling declining U.S. spot demand amid sustained bullish leverage.
Despite Bitcoin trading near $113.7K, Funding Rates remained firmly positive, reflecting strong conviction among derivatives traders.
This divergence between spot caution and leveraged optimism often precedes increased volatility.
If spot flows fail to recover while Futures exposure stays elevated, Bitcoin could face mounting pressure from both a technical and sentiment standpoint.
Miners cut back while, but is it enough?
The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) has dropped to -0.51 after a sharp 130% daily decline, suggesting reduced miner outflows relative to their annual average.
While this reduction often eases supply-side pressure, it hasn’t yet led to a bullish market response.
Traders appear hesitant, possibly waiting for broader confirmation before stepping in.
Even with miners pausing sales, the market remains in limbo, lacking strong inflows to spark momentum.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s NVM Ratio fell by 11.1% to 2.73, highlighting a gap between market cap and underlying network activity.
A lower ratio typically suggests the asset may be undervalued relative to user growth.
Still, this hasn’t translated into price strength, indicating the metric serves more as a longer-term signal than an immediate bullish catalyst.
While undervaluation narratives attract attention, they need stronger confirmation from inflows or trend reversals to shift market behavior.
Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin hovers at trendline
At press time, Bitcoin was testing its ascending trendline near $113.7K, with the MACD indicator flashing bearish momentum.
The crossover between the MACD and signal lines supports the view that bears are gaining ground. If price breaks below $111.9K, the structure could shift entirely, opening the door to deeper retracements.
The next few sessions could be pivotal, especially if bulls fail to reclaim higher ground and defend this critical trendline.
Source: TradingView
These areas have heavy leverage concentration and could become the focal point of forced liquidations. Should Bitcoin move aggressively in either direction, cascading stop-outs may follow.
Notably, a move below $112K may accelerate bearish momentum, while a reclaim of $116K could squeeze shorts. These levels are crucial battlegrounds and deserve close attention in the coming days.
Can Bitcoin hold its ground as pressure builds?
Bitcoin’s structure is weakening as institutional spot demand fades and leveraged optimism grows.
Although miners have scaled back selling and network data hints at undervaluation, these signals haven’t swayed short-term momentum.
With MACD turning bearish and major liquidation clusters forming just below the current price, BTC sits on fragile footing.
A breakdown below $111K could set off a sharper correction, especially if no strong inflows or bullish catalysts emerge soon.
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