Gold’s parabolic surge sparks risk-off warnings, but Ethereum’s rally hints at risk appetite returning.
Divergence grows as gold and ETH both climb — signal of macro shift or just market noise?
As gold rips into parabolic territory, seasoned market watchers are raising red flags.
Michael Van De Poppe, known for his timely macro calls, warns that the metal’s vertical climb could mark the onset of a broader risk-off reversal.
Yet, in a curious twist that challenges this cautionary tone, Ethereum [ETH] has bounced back above $1,700; hinting that the risk-on trade may still have breath left in it.
So what gives? Is this an early warning of a macro shift, or are markets merely pausing before their next leg up?
The gold signal
Gold’s breakout is sharp — almost euphoric — with price action accelerating into what Van De Poppe describes as a “wild” move.
But history suggests such vertical rallies often signal exhaustion rather than strength. According to him, this kind of parabolic run tends to precede broader risk aversion.
Source: X
With recession fears resurfacing, bond market volatility rising, and capital rotating into safe-haven assets, gold’s surge may not be just a bullish trend. It could be the first tremor of a larger macro unwind.
Ethereum: The countermove
While gold moves in classic risk-off fashion, Ethereum has unexpectedly rebounded, reclaiming the $1,700 level.
At first glance, this appears contradictory — ETH typically thrives during risk-on environments, not amid flight-to-safety behavior. So what’s behind the strength?
Source: TradingView
On-chain data suggests renewed whale accumulation and a rebound from oversold conditions following recent drawdowns.
Technical indicators back the move, with the RSI climbing above 70 and a bullish MACD crossover forming. Whether this signals a meaningful decoupling or if it is merely noise remains unclear.
Divergence or delay?
The widening gap between gold and Ethereum is striking. Traditionally moving in opposite directions under macro stress, they are now rallying side by side.
A closer look at the data reveals a key inflection: Ethereum breaks higher even as gold accelerates, defying expectations of synchronized behavior.
This opens two plausible scenarios.
In the first, gold is sounding the final alarm before markets roll over. Ethereum’s bounce could be a short-lived reprieve — a dead cat bounce — before risk assets succumb to the same forces driving safe-haven flows.
Van De Poppe has warned that vertical surges often end in reversal, not continuation. If gold marks a top, ETH and its peers may soon follow lower.
In the second scenario, Ethereum is leading a broader rotation back into risk. Its strong rebound may reflect renewed market appetite, positioning crypto as a bellwether of resilience.
If gold’s surge fades into a blow-off top, ETH could be hinting at what comes next… not divergence, but leadership in a delayed risk-on cycle.
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