Solana (SOL) briefly reached $159 yesterday after reports emerged that the first SOL staking ETF will launch in the US on July 2. While Solana price has since retreated to trade at $151 today, July 1, with a slight 0.8% gain, the ETF news has sparked increased market interest. Trading volumes are up by more than 70% to $4.79 billion. Hence, after this product goes live, how will the SOL price react? Can it reach $200?
Solana Price in Focus as First US SOL ETF Goes Live
As CoinGape recently reported, REX-Osprey will launch a spot SOL ETF this week, which will not only give investors exposure to SOL but also grant them access to staking income. This product seeks to pave the way for institutional crypto adoption that will be bullish for the Solana price.
The upcoming launch of this product has sparked the interest of top voices in the industry, including Bloomberg analysts, who forecast that a spot SOL ETF is now closer to approval than ever. Eric Balchunas notes that the launch may drive price gains, stating,
“Get ready for a potential Alt Coin ETF Summer with Solana likely leading the way.”
At the same time, James Seyffart noted that spot SOL ETF approval odds have surged to 95% alongside other altcoins like Litecoin and XRP. As these odds surge, retail traders appear to be positioning themselves for a potential Solana price rally.
Per Glassnode data, the addresses holding more than 0.1 SOL tokens have reached a fresh all-time high after surpassing 11.44 million. These small addresses are popular with trading based on the market sentiment, and if they are buying now, it shows they anticipate recovery.
Solana Wallet Balances (Source: Glassnode)
Hence, with the rising interest and a potential spark in institutional interest from the SOL staking ETF, it is possible that the Solana price will rally, and the technical structure is already supporting a bullish outlook.
How Will SOL React?
As aforementioned, the most expected reaction in the SOL price amid growing ETF optimism is a bull run. This rally has become even more likely with the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern, hinting at a looming breakout from consolidation.
This triangle formation sparks a bullish Solana price prediction if it can rise above the upper resistance level of $159. SOL was rejected at this price yesterday, but if a spark in buying pressure forms and it forms a decisive close above it, a 47% rally could commence to $235.
The AO histogram bars are supporting this bullish outlook as they turn green despite remaining below the mean level. This formation shows that the bearish pressure that has been keeping SOL below the $200 psychological support is losing strength, and a rally may be imminent.
SOL/USDT: 1-day Chart (Source: TradingView)
At the same time, Solana price appears to be facing strong resistance at the 50-day SMA level of $157. The price needs to cross above this short-term MA and move above the 200-day SMA of $166 to make a rally past $200 likely.
Nevertheless, a decisive close below this crucial SMA level may happen after the REX-Osprey staking SOL ETF launches in the US tomorrow, and the 47% symmetrical triangle breakout may be imminent. Hence, if Solana price reacts to this news, traders may anticipate a move above $200.
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muthoni
Muthoni Mary is a seasoned crypto market analyst and writer with over three years of experience decoding blockchain trends, price movements, and market dynamics. She holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Commerce (Finance) from Kenyatta University, blending a solid academic foundation with a sharp eye for technical analysis and a deep understanding of on-chain data. Her work delivers clear, data-driven insights that empower investors to navigate the fast-evolving digital asset space with confidence. When she’s not analyzing the markets, Mary enjoys reading and travelling.
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