Crypto markets brace for volatility this Friday, with the July options due for expiry today. Notably, today’s expiring options are for the month, making them significantly higher than in the past several weeks.
Analysts say the odds are higher for today’s expiring options, with the volume only slightly lower than last month’s H1 expiry, which hit $17 billion.
Bitcoin, Ethereum Options Expiry Looms With $14.59 Billion at Stake
According to Deribit data, Bitcoin and Ethereum options worth $14.59 billion will expire today, comprising contracts for July.
Out of these, Bitcoin contracts comprise the majority of expiring options, registering a notional value of $11.94 billion. More closely, it constitutes a total open interest of 103,584, the sum of all open Put (Sales) and Call (Purchase) option contracts.
Meanwhile, these options contracts have a Put to Call ratio (PCR) of 0.93, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook in the market, as purchase orders exceed sale orders.
Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit
As the chart below indicates, the maximum pain (Max Pain) level for today’s Bitcoin expiring options is $112,000. Here, most Bitcoin options holders will feel the most financial pain.
Meanwhile, Ethereum options with a notional value of $2.649 billion will expire today. It constitutes a total open interest of 737,361 call options that dominate. The Deribit data shows the put-to-call ratio at 0.88, indicating purchase orders dominate sale orders.
The Maximum pain or strike price for today’s Ethereum expiring options is $2,900, at which point most holders will experience the most financial loss.
Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit
This week’s expiring options are significantly less than the $5.76 billion witnessed last week. The difference comes as the $14.59 billion is for the month of July. This is because today is the last Friday of July.
Deribit compares today’s expiring options with the last one at the end of the first half (H1) of 2025. Based on this, analysts see today’s event as a notable test of price.
“Last month’s H1 expiry hit $17 billion. This week’s is not far behind, with over $15 billion in BTC and ETH options expiring. Another big expiry. Another big test,” they wrote.
Traders Cling to Put Positions Despite Significant Losses
Amidst the caution, seen with put-to-call ratios nearing 1, the general sentiment appears to be investors showing optimism but acknowledging that the market may already be overheated.
According to analysts at Greeks.live, options traders are clinging to their put positions or sale options, despite broader market strength.
“…traders holding put positions despite significant losses. Most traders are focused on potential downward moves, with key discussion around volatility levels around 30%,” analysts at Greeks.live shared in a post.
Further, the analysts highlight investor consciousness of market movers, including Elon Musk’s Bitcoin movements. However, according to Greeks.live, such fundamentals are not considered significant enough to influence options positioning.
“Traders acknowledged Musk moved coins as a catalyst but maintained their bearish stance with puts expected to print,” they added.
BeInCrypto reported that Elon Musk’s SpaceX recently moved $153 million worth of Bitcoin after three years of inactivity. The transaction sparked speculation about Elon Musk’s crypto strategy, with options traders also contributing over $47 million in net call (purchase) options placed on TSLA.
The positioning came ahead of Tesla’s earnings report on Wednesday, July 23, with significant investor optimism, as call options typically bet on price increases.
Andre Hiesinger’s charts show a premium spike to $50 million and an underlying TSLA price of $220.03, indicating heavy speculative trading ahead of the earnings. However, Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings fell slightly below expectations, suggesting investors may have overestimated growth.
Tesla reported that its Q2 2025 earnings missed expectations, with revenue down 12% and operating profit falling 25% short of forecasts. The results came out on Wednesday, July 23. pic.twitter.com/07w6wxIXIU— CGTN America (@cgtnamerica) July 24, 2025
Notwithstanding, as today’s options near expiration, volatility is expected, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices likely to pull toward their respective max pain levels.
As of this writing, Bitcoin and Ethereum were trading for $115,681 and $3,634, respectively, which suggests imminent corrections as these options near expiration.
However, the market tends to stabilize after options expire at 8:00 UTC on Deribit, with traders adjusting to new trading environments.
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