Amid the US SEC’s delayed decision on the spot XRP ETF, a futures one is all set to launch on May 19, 2025. Recently, the derivatives marketplace, CME Group, announced the plans for a Ripple token-based futures exchange-traded fund. Although it is not the desired spot ETF, investors are eyeing this launch for liquidity and to potentially influence the SEC’s decision. Can it also beat the debuts of ETH and BTC futures ETF? Let’s discuss.
CME XRP Futures ETF Launch Confirmed
CME Group’s XRP Futures ETF will go live on May 19, based on the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate. Interestingly, it will be launched in two contract sizes, one being a micro-sized contract of 2,500 XRP and the other larger-sized with 50,000 XRP.
The Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products at CME Group, Giovanni Vicioso, acknowledged the rising demand for the Ripple token among institutional and retail buyers. More importantly, he emphasized the creation of regulated derivatives for risk management.
Amid this, the Ripple Futures launch, the odds of the spot ETF approval by the SEC are rising on the Polymarket, hitting 83% at press time. This is significant as the Solana ETF decision is delayed. The next in line is the Ripple product-based Franklin Templeton spot ETF due for decision on June 17.
Can XRP Futures ETF Beat the ETH and BTC Debut?
The CME Group’s XRP ETF launch is a major event for the cryptocurrency. Crypto analyst, Cypress Demanincor, calls it a significant opportunity, claiming that it could bring large liquidity flows.
It would join CME’s other regulated crypto products, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures ETF. In Q1, they witnessed 141 YoY% with an average daily volume of 198k contracts or $11.3B in notional. Nearly 43k SOL futures were traded, and a similar or better result is expected with the XRP Futures ETF.
Although there’s hype around the Ripple future ETF launch, the odds of its surpassing the ETH and BTC are less.
Bitcoin Futures ETF (BITO), launched by ProShares, received $1 billion in first-day volume and $570M in initial AUM. Similarly, Ethereum’s three futures ETFs collectively received $1.92M in volume on their first day and nearly $20M in initial AUM.
Comparing these two and their crypto relative market capitalization and trading volume to XRP’s and other factors, AI Bots like ChatGPT predict that the XRP futures first day volume can come around $60M and estimate AUM at $35M.
Although this is just a speculation, the statistical approach indicates restricted performance compared to the other two. Additionally, the Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (XXRP) performance and others also hint at a similar result. The main reason behind this is that the investors are actually hooked to the spot XRP ETF launch.
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Pooja Khardia
With a deep-seated passion for reading and five years of experience in content writing, Pooja is now focused on crafting trending content about cryptocurrency market.
As a dedicated crypto journalist, Pooja is constantly seeking out trending topics and informative statistics to create compelling pieces for crypto enthusiasts. Staying abreast of the latest trends and advancements in the field is an integral part of her daily routine, fueling a commitment to delivering timely and insightful coverage
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